Professor Jeremy Oakley

All publications

Books

• O'Hagan A, Buck CE, Daneshkhah A, Eiser JR, Garthwaite PH, Jenkinson DJ, Oakley JE & Rakow T (2006) Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Journal articles

• Coveny S, Roney C, Corrado C, Wilkinson R, Oakley J, Niederer S & Clayton R (2022) Calibrating cardiac electrophysiology models using latent Gaussian processes on atrial manifolds. Scientific Reports, 12.
• Coveney S, Corrado C, Oakley JE, Wilkinson RD, Niederer SA & Clayton RH (2021) Corrigendum: Bayesian Calibration of Electrophysiology Models Using Restitution Curve Emulators. Frontiers in Physiology, 12, 765622-765622.
• Coveny S, Corrado C, Oakley J, Wilkinson R, Niederer S & Clayton R (2021) Bayesian calibration of electrophysiology models using restitution curve emulators. Frontiers in Physiology, 12. View this article in WRRO
• Jurek L, Balthazar M, Gulati S, Novakovic N, Núñez M, Oakley J & O'Hagan A (2021) Response (minimum clinically relevant change) in ASD symptoms after an intervention according to CARS-2 : consensus from an expert elicitation procedure. European Child and Adolescent Psychiatry.
• Coveney S, Corrado C, Roney CH, O’Hare D, Williams SE, O’Neill MD, Niederer SA, Clayton RH, Oakley JE & Wilkinson RD (2020) Gaussian process manifold interpolation for probabilistic atrial activation maps and uncertain conduction velocity. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 378(2173), ---. View this article in WRRO
• Corrado C, Razeghi O, Roney C, Coveney S, Williams S, Sim I, O'Neill M, Wilkinson R, Oakley J, Clayton R & Niederer S (2020) Quantifying atrial anatomy uncertainty from clinical data and its impact on electro-physiology simulation predictions. Medical Image Analysis, 61. View this article in WRRO
• Stevenson M, Uttley L, Oakley JE, Carroll C, Chick SE & Wong R (2020) Interventions to reduce the risk of surgically transmitted Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease: a cost-effective modelling review. Health Technology Assessment, 24(11), 1-150. View this article in WRRO
• Coveney S, Corrado C, Roney C, Wilkinson R, Oakley J, Lindgren F, Williams S, O'Neill M, Niederer S & Clayton R (2020) Probabilistic Interpolation of Uncertain Local Activation Times on Human Atrial Manifolds. IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 67(1), 99-109. View this article in WRRO
• McCreesh N, Andrianakis I, Nsubuga RN, Strong M, Vernon I, McKinley TJ, Oakley J, Goldstein M, Hayes R & White R (2018) Choice of time horizon critical in estimating costs and effects of changes to HIV programmes. PLoS ONE, 13(5). View this article in WRRO
• Ren S, Oakley JE & Stevens JW (2018) Incorporating Genuine Prior Information about Between-Study Heterogeneity in Random Effects Pairwise and Network Meta-analyses. Medical Decision Making, 38(4), 531-542. View this article in WRRO
• McKinley TJ, Vernon I, Andrianakis I, McCreesh N, Oakley JE, Nsubuga RN, Goldstein M & White RG (2018) Approximate Bayesian Computation and Simulation-Based Inference for Complex Stochastic Epidemic Models. Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 33(1), 4-18. View this article in WRRO
• McCreesh N, Andrianakis I, Nsubuga RN, Strong M, Vernon I, McKinley TJ, Oakley JE, Goldstein M, Hayes R & White RG (2017) Improving ART programme retention and viral suppression are key to maximising impact of treatment as prevention - a modelling study. BMC Infectious Diseases, 17(557). View this article in WRRO
• Andrianakis I, McCreesh N, Vernon I, McKinley TJ, Oakley JE, Nsugua RN, Goldstein M & White RG (2017) Efficient History Matching of a High Dimensional Individual-Based HIV Transmission Model. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 5(1), 694-719. View this article in WRRO
• Andrianakis I, Vernon I, McCreesh N, McKinley TJ, Oakley JE, Nsubuga RN, Goldstein M & White RG (2017) History matching of a complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus transmission by using variance emulation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 66(4), 717-740. View this article in WRRO
• McCreesh N, Andrianakis I, Nsubuga RN, Strong M, Vernon I, McKinley TJ, Oakley JE, Goldstein M, Hayes R & White RG (2017) Universal test, treat, and keep: improving ART retention is key in cost-effective HIV control in Uganda.. BMC Infectious Diseases, 17, 322-322. View this article in WRRO
• Oakley JE & Youngman BD (2017) Calibration of Stochastic Computer Simulators Using Likelihood Emulation. Technometrics, 59(1), 80-92. View this article in WRRO
• Strong M, Oakley JE, Brennan A & Breeze P (2015) Estimating the Expected Value of Sample Information Using the Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Sample. Medical Decision Making, 35(5), 570-583. View this article in WRRO
• Strong M, Oakley JE & Brennan A (2014) Estimating Multiparameter Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information from a Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Sample: A Nonparametric Regression Approach. Medical Decision Making, 34(3), 311-326. View this article in WRRO
• Strong M & Oakley JE (2014) When Is a Model Good Enough? Deriving the Expected Value of Model Improvement via Specifying Internal Model Discrepancies. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 2(1), 106-125. View this article in WRRO
• Ren S & Oakley JE (2014) Assurance calculations for planning clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes. Statistics in Medicine, 33(1), 31-45. View this article in WRRO
• Morris DE, Oakley JE & Crowe JA (2014) A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts. Environmental Modelling and Software, 52, 1-4.
• Strong M, Brennan A & Oakley J (2013) Fast efficient computation of expected value of sample information from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis sample: a non-parametric regression approach. Trials, 14(S1).
• Fricker TE, Oakley JE & Urban NM (2013) Multivariate Gaussian Process Emulators With Nonseparable Covariance Structures. Technometrics, 55(1), 47-56.
• Strong M & Oakley JE (2013) An efficient method for computing single-parameter partial expected value of perfect information.. Med Decis Making, 33(6), 755-766. View this article in WRRO
• Becker W, Oakley JE, Surace C, Gili P, Rowson J & Worden K (2012) Bayesian sensitivity analysis of a nonlinear finite element model. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing.
• Strong M, Oakley JE & Chilcott J (2011) Managing structural uncertainty in health economic decision models: A discrepancy approach. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics. View this article in WRRO
• Strong M & Oakley JE (2011) Bayesian inference for comorbid disease risks using marginal disease risks and correlation information from a separate source.. Med Decis Making, 31(4), 571-581. View this article in WRRO
• Becker W, Rowson J, Oakley JE, Yoxall A, Manson G & Worden K (2011) Bayesian sensitivity analysis of a model of the aortic valve.. J Biomech, 44(8), 1499-1506.
• Wilkinson RD, Vrettas M, Cornford D & Oakley JE (2011) Quantifying Simulator Discrepancy in Discrete-Time Dynamical Simulators. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 1-17.
• Wilkinson RD, Vrettas M, Cornford D & Oakley JE (2011) Quantifying Simulator Discrepancy in Discrete-Time Dynamical Simulators. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 16(4), 554-570.
• Fricker TE, Oakley JE, Sims ND & Worden K (2011) Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of an FRF of a structure using a Gaussian process emulator. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 25(8), 2962-2975. View this article in WRRO
• Becker W, Rowson J, Oakley JE, Yoxall A, Manson G & Worden K (2011) Bayesian sensitivity analysis of a model of the aortic valve. Journal of Biomechanics, 44(8), 1499-1506.
• Oakley JE, Brennan A, Tappenden P & Chilcott J (2010) Simulation sample sizes for Monte Carlo partial EVPI calculations.. J Health Econ, 29(3), 468-477. View this article in WRRO
• Stevenson MD, Oakley JE, Lloyd Jones M, Brennan A, Compston JE, McCloskey EV & Selby PL (2009) The cost-effectiveness of an RCT to establish whether 5 or 10 years of bisphosphonate treatment is the better duration for women with a prior fracture.. Med Decis Making, 29(6), 678-689. View this article in WRRO
• Nixon RM, O'Hagan A, Oakley J, Madan J, Stevens JW, Bansback N & Brennan A (2009) The Rheumatoid Arthritis Drug Development Model: a case study in Bayesian clinical trial simulation. PHARM STAT, 8(4), 371-389. View this article in WRRO
• Conti S, Gosling JP, Oakley JE & O'Hagan A (2009) Gaussian process emulation of dynamic computer codes. BIOMETRIKA, 96(3), 663-676. View this article in WRRO
• Oakley JE (2009) Decision-Theoretic Sensitivity Analysis for Complex Computer Models. TECHNOMETRICS, 51(2), 121-129. View this article in WRRO
• Stevenson MD, Oakley JE, Chick SE & Chalkidou K (2009) The cost-effectiveness of surgical instrument management policies to reduce the risk of vCJD transmission to humans. J OPER RES SOC, 60(4), 506-518. View this article in WRRO
• Karnon J, McIntosh A, Dean J, Bath P, Hutchinson A, Oakley J, Thomas N, Pratt P, Freeman-Parry L, Karsh B-T , Gandhi T et al (2008) Modelling the expected net benefits of interventions to reduce the burden of medication errors.. J Health Serv Res Policy, 13(2), 85-91. View this article in WRRO
• Coyle D & Oakley J (2008) Estimating the expected value of partial perfect information: A review of methods. European Journal of Health Economics, 9(3), 251-259. View this article in WRRO
• Oakley JE & O'Hagan A (2007) Uncertainty in prior elicitations: a nonparametric approach. BIOMETRIKA, 94(2), 427-441.
• Karnon J, McIntosh A, Dean J, Bath P, Hutchinson A, Oakley J, Thomas N, Pratt P, Freeman-Parry L, Karsh BT , Gandhi T et al (2007) A prospective hazard and improvement analytic approach to predicting the effectiveness of medication error interventions. SAFETY SCI, 45(4), 523-539. View this article in WRRO
• Gosling JP, Oakley JE & O'Hagan A (2007) Nonparametric elicitation for heavy-tailed prior distributions. BAYESIAN ANAL, 2(4), 693-718.
• Stevenson MD, Brazier JE, Calvert NW, Lloyd-Jones M, Oakley JE & Kanis JA (2005) Description of an individual patient methodology for calculating the cost-effectiveness of treatments for osteoporosis in women. J OPER RES SOC, 56(2), 214-221.
• Stevenson M, Jones ML, De Nigris E, Brewer N, Davis S & Oakley J (2005) A systematic review and economic evaluation of alendronate, etidronate, risedronate, raloxifene and teriparatide for the prevention and treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis. Health Technology Assessment, 9(22). View this article in WRRO
• Oakley JE & O'Hagan A (2004) Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of complex models: a Bayesian approach. J ROY STAT SOC B, 66, 751-769.
• Oakley J (2004) Estimating percentiles of uncertain computer code outputs. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics, 53(1), 83-93.
• Tappenden P, Chilcott JB, Eggington S, Oakley J & McCabe C (2004) Methods for expected value of information analysis in complex health economic models: developments on the health economics of interferon-beta and glatiramer acetate for multiple sclerosis.. Health technology assessment (Winchester, England), 8(27). View this article in WRRO
• Stevenson MD, Oakley J & Chilcott JB (2004) Gaussian process modeling in conjunction with individual patient simulation modeling: A case study describing the calculation of cost-effectiveness ratios for the treatment of established osteoporosis. MED DECIS MAKING, 24(1), 89-100.
• Oakley J & O'Hagan A (2002) Bayesian inference for the uncertainty distribution of computer model outputs. Biometrika, 89(4), 769-784.
• Oakley J (2002) Eliciting Gaussian process priors for complex computer codes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series D: The Statistician, 51(1), 81-97.
• Jurek L, Baltazar M, Gulati S, Novakovic N, Núñez M, Oakley J & O’Hagan A () Correction to: Response (minimum clinically relevant change) in ASD symptoms after an intervention according to CARS-2: consensus from an expert elicitation procedure. European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry.
• Alhussain ZA & Oakley JE () Assurance for clinical trial design with normally distributed outcomes : eliciting uncertainty about variances. Pharmaceutical Statistics. View this article in WRRO
• Andrianakis I, Vernon IR, McCreesh N, McKinley TJ, Oakley JE, Nsubuga RN, Goldstein M & White RG () Bayesian History Matching of Complex Infectious Disease Models Using Emulation: A Tutorial and a Case Study on HIV in Uganda. PLoS Computational Biology, 11(1), e1003968-e1003968. View this article in WRRO

Chapters

• Wilson KJ, Elfadaly FG, Garthwaite PH & Oakley JE (2021) Recent Advances in the Elicitation of Uncertainty Distributions from Experts for Multinomial Probabilities, International Series in Operations Research & Management Science (pp. 19-51). Springer International Publishing
• Oakley JE () Modelling with Deterministic Computer Models, Simplicity, Complexity and Modelling (pp. 51-67). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
• () Areas for Research, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 223-226). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
• () Published Examples of the Formal Elicitation of Expert Opinion, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 193-216). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
• () The Elicitation Context, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 25-31). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
• () Eliciting and Fitting a Parametric Distribution, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 121-151). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
• () Fundamentals of Probability and Judgement, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 1-24). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
• () Multiple Experts, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 179-192). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
• () Eliciting Distributions - Uncertainty and Imprecision, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 153-160). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
• () Evaluating Elicitation, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 161-177). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
• () Eliciting Distributions - General, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 97-119). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
• () The Elicitation of Probabilities, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 61-96). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
• () Glossary, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 227-265). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
• () The Psychology of Judgement Under Uncertainty, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 33-59). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Conference proceedings papers

• Jones OPH, Oakley JE & Purshouse RC (2022) Simulation-based engineering design: solving parameter inference and multi-objective optimization problems on a shared simulation budget. Proceedings of 2021 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC) (pp 1399-1405). Melbourne, Australia, 17 October 2021 - 20 October 2021.
• Geue C, Hawkins N, Oakley JE, Grieve R, Hernandez M & Carpenter J (2022) A FRAMEWORK FOR EXPERT ELICITATION RELATED TO COUNTERFACTUAL VALUES: A CASE STUDY OF ELICITATION TO INFORM SUBGROUP ANALYSES IN CLINICAL TRIALS. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 25(1) (pp S274-S274)
• Hawkins N, Geue C, Oakley J, Grieve R & Hernandez M (2020) AN EXPLORATION OF THE TRADE-OFF BETWEEN FALSE NEGATIVES AND FALSE POSITIVES WHEN IDENTIFYING SUBGROUP EFFECTS. MEDICAL DECISION MAKING, Vol. 40(1) (pp E266-E267)
• Geue C, Hawkins N, Oakley J, Grieve R, Hernandez M & Carpenter J (2020) A FRAMEWORK FOR EXPERT ELICITATION TO INFORM SUBGROUP ANALYSES IN CLINICAL TRIALS. MEDICAL DECISION MAKING, Vol. 40(5) (pp E410-E411)
• Jones OPH, Oakley JE & Purshouse RC (2019) Toward a unified framework for model calibration and optimisation in virtual engineering workflows. 2019 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics (SMC) (pp 2148-2153). Bari, Italy, 6 October 2019 - 9 October 2019. View this article in WRRO
• Jones OPH, Oakley JE & Purshouse RC (2019) Toward a unified framework for model calibration and optimisation in virtual engineering workflows. 2019 IEEE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SYSTEMS, MAN AND CYBERNETICS (SMC) (pp 3148-3153)
• Jones O, Oakley JE & Purshouse R (2018) Component-level study of a decomposition-based multi-objective optimizer on a limited evaluation budget. Proceedings of the Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference (GECCO 2018) (pp 689-696), 15 July 2018 - 19 July 2018. View this article in WRRO
• Ren S, Oakley JE & Stevens JW (2017) EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS FOR HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT WITH LIMITED STUDIES. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 20(9) (pp A770-A770)
• Malde S, Wyncoll D, Oakley J, Tozer N & Gouldby B (2016) Applying emulators for improved flood risk analysis. E3S Web of Conferences, Vol. 7 (pp 04002-04002)
• Strong M, Brennan A & Oakley J (2015) How to Calculate Value of Information in Seconds Using ‘Savi’, the Sheffield Accelerated Value of Information Web App. Value in Health, Vol. 18(7) (pp A725-A726) View this article in WRRO
• Becker W, Rowson J, Oakley J, Yoxall A, Manson G & Worden K (2008) Bayesian sensitivity analysis of a large nonlinear model. 23rd International Conference on Noise and Vibration Engineering 2008, ISMA 2008, Vol. 6 (pp 3723-3736) View this article in WRRO
• Stevenson MD, Brazier JE, Calvert NW, Lloyd-Jones M, Oakley JE & Kanis JA (2004) The cost-effectiveness of bisphosphonates, raloxifene and teriparatide in women with a prior fracture, low BMD and replete of calcium and vitamin D. OSTEOPOROSIS INTERNATIONAL, Vol. 15 (pp S39-S39)
• Stevenson MD, Brazier JE, Calvert NW, Lloyd-Jones M, Oakley JE & Kanis JA (2004) The cost-effectiveness of calcium and vitamin D in women with low dietary calcium intake. OSTEOPOROSIS INTERNATIONAL, Vol. 15 (pp S39-S40)
• O'Hagan A & Oakley JE (2004) Probability is perfect, but we can't elicit it perfectly. RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY, Vol. 85(1-3) (pp 239-248)
• Stevenson MD, Brazier JE, Lloyd-Jones M, Calvert N, Oakley J & Kanis JA (2004) The cost-effectiveness of bisphosphonates, raloxifene and hormone replacement therapy in women with established osteoporosis and replete of calcium and vitamin D. OSTEOPOROSIS INTERNATIONAL, Vol. 15 (pp S111-S111)
• Stevenson MD, Lloyd-Jones M, Brazier JE, Calvert N, Oakley J & Kanis JA (2004) The cost-effectiveness of calcium and vitamin D supplementation in women with low dietary intake of these nutrients and at risk of osteoporosis. OSTEOPOROSIS INTERNATIONAL, Vol. 15 (pp S87-S88)
• Oakley J & O’Hagan A (2002) Bayesian Analysis of Computer Model Outputs (pp 119-130)
• Lopes S, Niranjan M & Oakley J (2001) Forecasting of Air Pollution at Unmonitored Sites (pp 497-500)
• Coveney S, Corrado C, Roney C, D. Wilkinson R, Oakley J, niederer S & H. Clayton" R () A Workflow for Probabilistic Calibration of Models of Left Atrial Electrophysiology. Computing in Cardiology Conference (CinC)
• Corrado C, Williams S, Sim I, Coveney S, O'Neill M, Wilkinson R, Oakley J, Clayton R & Niederer S () An algorithm to sample an anatomy with uncertainty. 2018 Computing in Cardiology Conference (CinC), Vol. 45. Maastricht, The Netherlands, 23 September 2018 - 26 September 2018. View this article in WRRO

Posters

• Geue C, Hawkins N, Oakley JE, Grieve R, Hernandez M & Carpenter J (2022) POSB421 A Framework for Expert Elicitation Related to Counterfactual Values: A Case Study of Elicitation to Inform Subgroup Analyses in Clinical Trials..
• Ren S, Oakley J & Stevens JW (2018) Evidence synthesis with limited studies. HTAi 2018, Vancouver, Canada.
• Ren S, Oakley J & Stevens JW (2017) Evidence synthesis for health technology assessment with limited studies.. . ISPOR Glasgow 2017.

Preprints

• Salsbury J, Oakley J, Julious S & Hampson L (2023) Assurance Methods for designing a clinical trial with a delayed treatment effect, arXiv.
• Coveney S, Roney CH, Corrado C, Wilkinson RD, Oakley JE, Niederer SA & Clayton RH (2022) Calibrating cardiac electrophysiology models using latent Gaussian processes on atrial manifolds.
• Coveney S, Corrado C, Roney CH, O'Hare D, Williams SE, O'Neill MD, Niederer SA, Clayton RH, Oakley JE & Wilkinson RD (2020) Gaussian Process Manifold Interpolation for Probabilistic Atrial Activation Maps and Uncertain Conduction Velocity.